Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MKR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 928.257733 1060.352288 1211.547183 1398.961620 1627.205584 1898.992543 2.251452e+03
2024-10-27 719.998680 876.334468 1071.705077 1338.869122 1702.998766 2194.950345 2.933933e+03
2024-11-03 651.043646 825.225664 1055.737729 1392.708128 1890.230968 2629.044116 3.876979e+03
2024-11-10 592.130852 775.282588 1029.191541 1421.634966 2042.550944 3046.607542 4.942916e+03
2024-11-17 544.956240 732.560186 1002.770921 1440.498305 2175.932241 3460.116791 6.156604e+03
2024-11-24 497.111811 682.181233 956.925655 1419.210765 2235.522842 3757.781517 7.272933e+03
2024-12-01 468.535840 656.373580 943.866449 1446.836346 2382.700882 4256.933239 9.079170e+03
2024-12-08 448.708262 641.258292 944.862221 1496.992628 2580.500913 4919.465232 1.170417e+04
2024-12-15 425.572729 618.350962 929.981505 1515.713991 2719.726853 5500.317114 1.453907e+04
2024-12-22 399.438076 588.100004 899.243075 1499.995346 2783.397684 5923.365942 1.723009e+04
2024-12-29 383.454511 572.936715 892.522076 1528.709187 2949.803589 6673.937452 2.192294e+04
2025-01-05 358.736940 541.148879 853.347610 1487.495009 2947.121351 6957.841064 2.498523e+04
2025-01-12 336.168930 512.432734 819.005077 1455.831874 2971.952196 7371.781124 2.950659e+04
2025-01-19 312.265948 479.868174 775.052743 1399.116243 2925.355712 7556.112074 3.320723e+04
2025-01-26 305.028785 475.632137 782.998343 1454.111505 3179.782114 8882.314222 4.736532e+04
2025-02-02 295.426282 466.382777 780.401241 1485.423096 3380.335854 10151.643358 6.584390e+04
2025-02-09 285.318521 455.403581 773.278707 1505.223700 3554.627554 11446.820929 9.130535e+04
2025-02-16 271.649928 436.937906 749.635902 1482.712923 3596.830994 12204.059871 1.151927e+05
2025-02-23 264.195927 429.480028 747.491081 1511.988738 3811.237265 13967.279322 1.732413e+05
2025-03-02 259.401181 426.644976 754.501962 1565.208927 4123.529157 16577.356900 2.995898e+05
2025-03-09 251.922326 418.148129 748.834751 1585.079189 4328.904363 18827.758584 4.943399e+05
2025-03-16 241.935361 404.173154 730.310074 1568.394608 4397.299660 20295.192890 7.370335e+05
2025-03-23 236.347486 398.458114 729.198772 1598.876457 4657.954405 23519.429039 1.534372e+06